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Is people making silly mistakes for no other reason than being dumb or ignorant a Chekhov's gun violation?
If a guard says "The reinforcement will arrive in 2 days.", but it turns out they will come 3 weeks late, and there's no other reason for the guard saying this aside his own incompetence, would that be a big Chekhov's gun violation? Because I never saw that unless the guard was a traitor or a spy. Is there a way to solve this, or make mistakes palatable by not triggering the Chekhov's gun?
No, not at all. Why they say what they say and it's accuracy (or lack thereof) isn't relevant. In the scenario you describe the putative "gun" is the arrival (or at least the expected arrival) of the the reinforcements so assuming the question of when reinforcements are going to arrive is pertinent to the plot then having a character discuss it, regardless of the accuracy of the information they provide isn't an unfired gun.
You can either use the inaccuracy as a plot driver in it's own right e.g. they state that reinforcements are due in 2 days leading to false hope and potential dramatic tension/conflict when they don't turn up, or you can use it as a characterisation moment for the guard: e.g. the other competent characters know that guard is wrong and this then demonstrates that the guard isn't competent.
