If a person writes a novel, grammar alright, decent story, word count, etc. everything okay,
Is it a crap shoot for that person to get published? Is it just like the lottery or maybe better chances? Is it like a band hoping to get discovered or a little better than that?
Anyone who actively pursues publication can get published. Sometimes it can happen easily, other times it may take month or even years. Just because it's well written and is a decent novel, doesn't mean every publisher wants it. It may not be right for some publishers, and others may not think they can market a certain novel well. But if you keep trying, eventually someone will give you a shot. Sometimes you need to put that novel away for a while and work on another one; maybe that one will have better chances.
The trick is to try your best and never give up. Make sure your novel is well written, make sure you're querying the correct publishers, make sure you're being professional, and make sure you do your homework.
To answer your question literally: most novels that are written will never be published. Thousands of people write a novel every year, and probably less than 1% of those novels are ever read by anyone other than the author's friends and family. Publishers and agents turn down many thousands of manuscripts a year.
However, it does not follow that publishing is a matter of getting lucky. The novels that are published are the ones that are at the top of the heap in terms of quality, so you can vastly increase your chances of being published by writing a really spectacular book. It's not enough to make no mistakes--you have to absolutely kill at some aspects of your story. (And if your story is very strong in some areas, weaknesses in other areas may be overlooked.)
Nonetheless, there is an element of luck: there are all kinds of reasons that a publisher may turn down your story other than the fact that it sucks. But this is not really a big deal. If you've written one professional-quality novel, you can write another, and once you're writing at a professional level, it's only a matter of time before someone stands up and takes notice.
The truth is that most novels never will be published by another party. There are a limited number of publishers in the world and only a very few books will be selected to be published.
As an alternative in the last few years self-publishing - particularly in e-books - has become a viable and cost-effective measure for new writers to ge their works out to as wide an audience as possible. There are many sites in the world that will allow you to upload your own novel and release it as an e-book for free, then pay you a portion of every sale.
Sites such as Amazon.com and Smashwords.com will both do this for free.
If you just have to see your book in a printed and visual form, look up Do-it-yourself book binding and bind your own copies of your books. It is labor intensive, but you can make a paperback form of your novel for just a few dollars and sell them yourself, but your audience is much smaller.
As an example, I bound my own novel Future Useless and made 75 paperback copies. Each copy cost me about $1.50 to print and bind, and took many hours from start to finish. I sold most of them for $5.00 each and gave away about 25. Still, I managed to clear a good profit from the books and it helped pay some bills.
Online I published both at Smashwords.com and Amazon.com. So far I've managed to sell over 150 copies of the novel and didn't have to pay a dime to do so. It took me less than five hours to prepare the manuscript to their approved formats. Much more profitable.
More importantly, After trying for 5 years to get published, my book is being read, and I'm receiving valuable feedback on my writing.
There is a stigma to self-publishing that carries over from older times and regards the quality of the books, but in the last few years, the digital revolution and the sale of more affordable e-reader devices have started to change that perception. Now a self-published novel is not just due to poor quality, but can be seen as the author's choice of marketing instead.
It depends on what you mean by published.
Today more than ever there is a continuum of publishing options. What used to be called self-published is often referred to as independently published now. (This can get confusing because there are also independent publishers--a whole other thing--more on this in a moment). If you choose to publish independently, you no longer have to use an expensive vanity press or bang your head against the brick walls of the chain bookstores, which tend not to carry so-called indie titles. In fact, you don't have to print your book at all. Authors like Karen McQuestion have hit the publishing jackpot after self-publishing their novels on Kindle, promoting on the Kindle boards, seeing their sales figures rise, and ultimately receiving offers from agents, publishers, and in some cases, Amazon's own publishing arm, Encore.
So any novel can be published today by the above criterion.
If what you mean is traditionally published, there are at least three different paths.
There are the majors (Random House, HarperCollins, etc., which add up to the so-called Big 6, although imprints within these 6 bring the total to between 20 and 30 depending on what you write).
And then there are the well-established independents (Counterpoint, Overlook, Milkweed, Algonquin, Grey Wolf, Sourcebooks, Poisoned Pen, to name just a few).
Finally, there are ever more brand new, very small ("micro") presses cropping up. Four of these are Krill Press, Oak Tree Press, Echelon Press, and Wolfmont, but there are many others to check out.
If your work is good, falls within required word limits, and you have a good marketing sense and platform established by the time you begin submitting your novel, I'd say there is a much better-than-the-lottery chance that you can at least interest the publisher of one of the new, small presses in you and your work.
The majors will always be something of a lottery. In addition to an absolutely top drawer manuscript (ms), you have to get many people along the way to fall in love with your novel. First an agent, then other agents at that agency; then an editor; then everyone else at the publishing house, right up to the publisher him or herself, plus the marketing departments.
You have to have a project that hasn't been done recently or isn't forthcoming at the house, while simultaneously not being different or unusual enough that it would be hard to slot into a niche. You have to have enough of an identity that you are a good marketing bet. And then there's the intangible fact of that "falling in love" thing. We all know love is hard to find, and subjective. The requirement that 6 or more people fall in love with the same novel sets the bar so high that I'd say getting an offer from the majors is much, much less likely than not--and that's even if you're a stellar talent.
On the other hand, less than stellar stuff is published all the time--again because there's a certain capricious factor that comes of requiring so many stars to align.
My short answer is that if you're willing to entertain some of the brand new presses appearing on the scene, you should be able to get your novel published, provided it's good.
If your heart is set on the majors, you just might be better off buying that lottery ticket.
If you win, you can start your own publishing house ;)
Everything I ever needed to know about these topics is contained in two free pdf downloads by respected UK author Michael Allen. One is an actual book, the other an extended essay.
They're not pleasant reading but for any writer they are essential:
The Truth About Writing, On The Survival Of Rats In The Slush Pile
EDIT 03-02-2012: As the old links no longer work here is a link to the author's Smashwords page. Where all of his work can be found.
eBooks are not all self-published. There are a number of legitimate publishers out there who publish eBooks exclusively, or predominantly. They may be a bit easier to get published with, as their costs are lower and they can publish more in a given time period. Some of them, in fact, may have pretty low standards, which isn't necessarily good for those who get published through them. However, others are perfectly respectable. And all of them are, imo, preferrable to going the self-published route. At the very least, they'll provide a credential for other published works, and if you're lucky, you'll get one that has good editors. (One of the hallmarks of eBooks seems to be bad grammar and overlooked typos.)
Luck, as in most other aspects of life plays a major role in getting published whether people want to admit it or not. Just look at the crappy novels that are famous and popular and you will get the point. On the other hand I have read some novels by unknowns that are very good and in some cases great and they will never become popular or known. even though the author has fought tooth and nail trying to make his work known. It's a crap shoot.
