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expanded on the GoT example because of comments
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tryin
tryin
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Danaerys's descent into madness was barely foreshadowed, and more importantly, other things which were foreshadowed were not fulfilled.

(edit to make it clearer) The audience expects Danaerys to be heroic, just, good, etc. They don't remember the bad things she did three seasons ago as 'bad', they remember them as justified. IIRC, none of the 'good' characters doubted her judgement until she'd already done some horrible things. At this point, it's a little too late to 'remind' the audience that insanity/madness runs in the family, because they'll think it's part of a ploy to throw them off the scent of the real twist.

(Note - this is common in media famous for twists, fake deaths, etc. Fans stop trusting reality as presented by the show, because the show has already lied so many times. Every plausible direction for the plot to go in is now a potential red-herring)

More on GoT - Bran, a character who showed no prior inclination to ruling (and, I think, a generally disliked character?) becomes king. So far, he's mainly been involved in the supernatural aspect of the show, not the political one. The show set up Jon vs Danaerys as the main battle for the throne - which one of them would get it, and how would the other one feel about it? That entire aspect/arc was cut short, and the none of the audience's expectations about it were satisfied.

Danaerys's descent into madness was barely foreshadowed, and more importantly, other things which were foreshadowed were not fulfilled.

Danaerys's descent into madness was barely foreshadowed, and more importantly, other things which were foreshadowed were not fulfilled.

(edit to make it clearer) The audience expects Danaerys to be heroic, just, good, etc. They don't remember the bad things she did three seasons ago as 'bad', they remember them as justified. IIRC, none of the 'good' characters doubted her judgement until she'd already done some horrible things. At this point, it's a little too late to 'remind' the audience that insanity/madness runs in the family, because they'll think it's part of a ploy to throw them off the scent of the real twist.

(Note - this is common in media famous for twists, fake deaths, etc. Fans stop trusting reality as presented by the show, because the show has already lied so many times. Every plausible direction for the plot to go in is now a potential red-herring)

More on GoT - Bran, a character who showed no prior inclination to ruling (and, I think, a generally disliked character?) becomes king. So far, he's mainly been involved in the supernatural aspect of the show, not the political one. The show set up Jon vs Danaerys as the main battle for the throne - which one of them would get it, and how would the other one feel about it? That entire aspect/arc was cut short, and the none of the audience's expectations about it were satisfied.

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tryin
tryin
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TLDR - Readers guessing your plot twist doesn't have to mean it's ruined, there are ways to make it satisfying

linksassin's answer is good, but I'll offer an alternate idea :

Anticipated plot twists can work if they're executed well

Take the famous Star Wars example. The twist that Darth Vader is Luke's father isn't a twist for present day first-time viewers. It didn't make it any less satisfying for me, because

  1. Watching the movies with the twist in mind added a layer of depth to the characters' actions (Obi-Wan says Vader killed Luke's father - in a way, I guess he did. Knowing that Obi-Wan and Vader used to be friends makes Obi-Wan's death even sadder)

  2. I knew what would happen, but I didn't know how it would happen. The characters' reactions to the twist were enjoyable and consistent with their development so far.

Another well-done plot twist was in Gravity Falls -

The reveal that Stan Pines had a long-lost twin

By the time the reveal episode aired, most of the fans had come up with this theory and had lots of evidence to back up their claims.

What made it so satisfying was -

  1. The execution - it was a tense, emotional scene, and although the fans had guessed the main idea, there were a lot of additional details that were new (and twisty in their own rights)

  2. This depends on the kind of story you're writing, I suppose, but the work that fans put in to come up with this theory was... intense, is one word for it. The creator dropped some well-hidden hints and foreshadowing, but also lampshaded the idea in some other episodes (to try to throw fans off track? I don't know)

Those are two plot twists that people saw coming, but still remain enjoyable.

An infamous example of an unexpected and widely disliked plot twist was the ending of Game Of Thrones -

Danaerys's descent into madness was barely foreshadowed, and more importantly, other things which were foreshadowed were not fulfilled.

Once you make a contract with the reader, you have to fulfill it, or risk leaving the readers feeling cheated.

If you have a prophecy, for example, you can either play it straight and fulfill it in the expected manner, or twist the words for some surprises (Percy Jackson does this quite often).

What you can't * do is, in your penultimate or climax chapter, have your MC say 'Screw this prophecy, lets go do our own thing' - at least, you can't do it without previously establishing that your MC doesn't believe in prophecy, is tired of being pushed around by oracles, etc. If your MC has been totally fine with the prophecy so far, then this isn't a plot twist, it's an inconsistency.

IMO, a predictable yet satisfying plot twist is better than a 'smart' or bizarre one (like you said in your question)

*'Can't' in writing is subjective - it usually means 'you shouldn't do this unless you're very confident in your work because usually when this is done it doesn't turn out well'